Kenya has been placed on heightened alert following warnings that ongoing heavy rains could trigger a rise in malaria cases across several regions, particularly in Western Kenya.
The alert is based on projections from the Malaria Epidemic Early Warning Prediction System, jointly developed by the Kenya Meteorological Department, the Ministry of Health, and the Kenya Medical Research Institute. The system highlights significantly elevated outbreak risks in April 2026 due to persistent rainfall and favourable mosquito breeding conditions.
According to the projections, Kisii County faces the highest threat with a 100 per cent probability of a malaria epidemic, far above the 20 per cent threshold used to classify high-risk zones. Nandi County follows with a 60 per cent risk, while Kakamega records a 27.3 per cent probability, just below the epidemic threshold but still concerning.
“Malaria epidemic early prediction model outputs… indicate a high overall risk of a 100% chance of a malaria epidemic in Kisii, a high risk of 60% in Nandi and a lower risk of 27.3% in Kakamega,” the report stated.
Health experts link the rising threat to above-average rainfall recorded in March, combined with slightly cooler temperatures that still support mosquito survival. The ongoing long rains, expected to intensify through April, are also contributing to widespread flooding and stagnant water – ideal breeding grounds for malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
High-burden counties around the Lake Victoria Basin, including Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Migori, Busia, Vihiga, and Kakamega, continue to record some of the highest malaria transmission rates in the country.
Recent data shows incidences reaching as high as 748 cases per 1,000 people in some areas, even as national mortality has declined by 32 per cent between 2019 and 2023. Despite this progress, malaria remains a persistent public health burden, with approximately 5 million cases reported in 2024.
The government has urged residents in high-risk regions to take preventive measures, including draining stagnant water, sleeping under treated mosquito nets, and seeking early treatment when symptoms appear.
As heavy rains persist across much of the country, authorities warn that vigilance is critical to preventing a full-scale outbreak in the coming weeks.
