Kenyan households may get some relief at the market stall in the weeks ahead, but a war thousands of kilometres away could quickly wipe out those gains — that is the stark warning emerging from the Central Bank of Kenya’s latest agriculture sector survey.
The CBK Agriculture Sector Survey for May 2026 paints a picture of a food basket caught between two opposing forces: improved harvests from the March-May long rains season that are pushing vegetable prices down, and global shocks from the US-Israel-Iran conflict that are driving up the cost of imported and processed foods.
The survey found that prices of rice, bread, maize flour, wheat flour, sugar, cooking oil, cooking fat and packaged milk are all expected to rise in the coming weeks. The anticipated increases are linked to disruptions in global shipping routes and rising oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict — costs that are filtering through to Kenya’s food distribution networks.
“Transport costs emerged as the biggest factor influencing retail prices, with 95 per cent of respondents identifying it as a major driver. Weather conditions followed at 83 per cent, while market access and product availability accounted for 77 per cent,” the survey stated. It further noted that 76 per cent of respondents linked price pressures directly to the US-Israel-Iran war and its impact on global oil prices and supply chains.
The news is not all grim, however. Prices of spinach, sukuma wiki, traditional vegetables and unpackaged fresh milk are expected to fall, boosted by improved harvests. Tomatoes, onions, potatoes, carrots, green maize and green grams are also expected to benefit from stronger market supply following the favourable long rains.
Inflation expectations have also eased somewhat. About 65 per cent of respondents expect inflation to rise over the next month, down significantly from 81 per cent recorded in April 2026 — a sign that improved food production is providing some cushion to consumers.
More than 80 per cent of surveyed respondents expressed optimism about agricultural performance over the next three months and one year, citing favourable weather and continued government support in reducing farm input costs. Sugarcane, millet, onions and carrots were among crops where farmers expressed stronger confidence.
But the survey also sounded a structural alarm: 77 per cent of sampled farmers depend almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture, leaving Kenya’s food security heavily exposed to any shift in weather patterns.
The CBK findings suggest Kenya is entering a critical window where global energy markets, rainfall, and domestic farming conditions will together determine whether ordinary Kenyans find lasting relief from the cost of living — or face yet another inflationary wave before the year is out.
