Nairobi, Kenya — The Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) has raised the alarm over a steady decline in formal milk supply, warning that Kenyans could face even higher prices and deeper shortages unless the government moves fast to stabilise the dairy sector.
In a statement issued Monday, COFEK said the concern stems from official data showing formal-sector milk intake dropped from 88.89 million litres in May 2026 to 84.44 million litres in June, a 5.0 per cent month-on-month decline. The federation cited figures from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, noting that June’s intake was also 6.4 per cent below the 90.24 million litres recorded the same month last year.
“Consumers are entitled to a clear, evidence-based account of the true state of the sector,” the federation said, pushing back against public commentary suggesting milk supply is currently expanding.
COFEK said the squeeze is already visible in Nairobi, where some retailers have started rationing milk purchases. At Waithaka Dairy Centre, for instance, the price of fresh milk has climbed from Sh70 to Sh80 per litre, while branded packaged milk has become intermittently scarce on supermarket shelves.
The federation traced the shortage back to struggles facing smallholder farmers, who supply roughly 80 per cent of the country’s milk. “Smallholder farmers who supply roughly 80 per cent of Kenya’s milk report yields falling from 7–9 litres to 4–5 litres per cow per day, driven by poor pasture following delayed rains and a roughly 45 per cent rise in commercial feed costs,” COFEK said, adding that the Kenya Dairy Board has itself acknowledged that farmers could be exiting the sector by selling off cows they can no longer feed.
COFEK argued the crisis was avoidable, faulting New KCC and the Kenya Dairy Board for failing to adequately mop up last year’s milk surplus or build the resulting milk powder into the country’s strategic food reserves. “Had these buffers been in place, today’s supply shock would have been substantially cushioned,” the federation said.
The consumer lobby has now issued a set of demands. It wants the Ministry of Agriculture to publish a transparent recovery plan within seven days, complete with monthly milk-intake targets and emergency fodder support for affected dairy counties. It is also calling on the Kenya Dairy Board to account publicly for the 2025 surplus and set up a standing reserve mechanism, and on the National Treasury to waive import duty and VAT on yellow maize, soya and other dairy-feed inputs to ease farmers’ costs.
COFEK further wants all three institutions to jointly monitor retail prices to curb opportunistic price gouging and to issue fortnightly public updates on intake, prices and reserves until the situation stabilises.
“COFEK will closely monitor compliance and reserves the right to pursue further advocacy and legal action should these urgent measures not be actioned within the stipulated timelines,” said Secretary-General Stephen Mutoro, who signed the statement.
