Kenyans are bracing for a possible fuel price increase next month as escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt the sea routes that carry crude oil to the country.
The government has raised the alarm over growing insecurity around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, two of the world’s most critical oil shipping corridors. The warning comes ahead of the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s (EPRA) pricing review in August, which will determine whether motorists pay more at the pump.
The trouble began building on July 20, when Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels announced a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea, threatening the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital passage for global trade. The move follows weeks of rising tension involving Iran, the United States and their allies, all of which has rattled energy markets already on edge.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi said the disruptions could have far-reaching consequences for ordinary Kenyans. He warned that threats to freedom of navigation risk disrupting supply chains for oil and fertiliser, constraining international trade and driving up maritime insurance and freight costs.
He added that the resulting rise in import and production costs is expected to heighten inflationary pressure in Kenya and across the wider region.
Because Kenya calculates fuel prices using the average landing cost of shipments received by the 10th of each month, any disruption in the coming days could still influence the next pricing cycle. Ships arriving over the next two weeks will factor directly into August’s rates.
For now, prices remain unchanged. Super Petrol is retailing at Ksh214.03 per litre in Nairobi, diesel at Ksh222.86, and kerosene at Ksh191.38, figures EPRA has held steady since May under the current June 14 to August 14 cycle.
But global markets tell a different story. Brent crude has climbed roughly 10 to 13 per cent this week alone, rising from the high-$80s into the $97 to $100 range per barrel, translating to about Ksh12,950 per barrel.
The government says it is leaning on its government-to-government fuel import arrangement with Saudi Arabia to shield Kenyan consumers from the worst of any price shock. Whether that cushion holds may depend on how long the Red Sea standoff lasts.
