The Government has identified 18 counties at risk from the anticipated El Niño rains, rolling out a detailed response plan as forecasters warn of a strong weather event that could bring flooding, drought, disease outbreaks and displacement across the country from October.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority says the country may experience above-normal rainfall starting this October, with an 81 percent chance of a strong El Niño event and a 97 percent probability that its effects will persist into early next year.
To prepare, the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC), under the Ministry of Interior and National Administration, has mapped out counties in the Coastal, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions as facing the highest vulnerability, alongside the urban centres of Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu.
“Eighteen counties have been identified requiring priority preparedness and response measures because of their exposure to flooding, landslides, drought, food insecurity, disease outbreaks and other possible El Niño-related impacts,” the Interior Ministry said.
In the Coast region, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale are expected to face flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage, with some residents at risk of displacement. In the Lake Basin, Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori face flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and possible displacement.
Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu, as high-risk urban centres, are expected to grapple with flooding, blocked drainage systems, strained infrastructure and disruption of essential services.
In the Rift Valley, Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok face a combination of drought, flash floods, landslides, livestock losses and food insecurity, while Garissa, Wajir and Mandera in North Eastern Kenya are bracing for drought, water scarcity, poor pasture and food insecurity.
The Interior Ministry said the list is not final. “More areas may be included in the plan if experts consider them vulnerable to El Nino risks,” it noted.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has separately warned that the anticipated heavy rains could raise the risk of Rift Valley Fever across East Africa, as flooding creates favourable breeding conditions for mosquitoes that spread the disease among livestock and humans.
“These forecasting climate conditions are expected to create favourable ecological conditions for Rift Valley fever transmission,” ICPAC said, naming Kenya among the countries at greatest risk alongside Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania.
The National Emergency Multi-Agency and County Emergency Response teams have been placed on high alert and are being sensitised on their roles ahead of the expected weather conditions, as authorities move to avoid a repeat of past disruptions caused by extreme weather.
