Kenya is heading into one of its most critical agricultural seasons under a dark cloud — and this time, the threat is not too much rain, but too little.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has issued a stark seasonal forecast warning that Kenya, alongside several other East African nations, is likely to experience below-normal rainfall and hotter-than-usual temperatures during the June–September 2026 (JJAS) season. The outlook was released at the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), which convened in Addis Ababa on May 18–19.
Western and coastal parts of Kenya are among the areas most at risk of drier-than-normal conditions — a forecast that carries serious implications for rain-fed agriculture, livestock, water resources, and energy production across the country.
“June to September is a vital rainy season for countries in the northern and western parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, accounting for over 50% of annual rainfall,” the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) noted in the forum’s findings.
The alarm is heightened by a troubling historical comparison. ICPAC noted that evolving climate conditions in 2026 closely resemble those recorded during the strong El Niño years of 1997 and 2023, both of which brought severe rainfall deficits to western Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.
“These past years provide useful guidance for preparedness and anticipatory action; however, this seasonal forecast remains the main reference for planning and decision-making,” ICPAC stated.
Other countries in the crosshairs include South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti, with the worst dry conditions projected over northeastern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and northern Uganda. Some relief is forecast for isolated pockets — including parts of northern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and coastal Somalia — where near-normal or slightly above-average rainfall is expected.
Above-normal temperatures are forecast across most of the region, with the strongest warming signals over Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. Combined with rainfall deficits, these conditions could accelerate soil moisture loss and place additional strain on already fragile communities in arid and semi-arid areas.
The sectors most exposed include rain-fed farming, pastoral livelihoods, hydropower generation, public health systems, and municipal water supplies.
For regional leaders gathered in Addis Ababa, the message was clear: forecasts alone are not enough.
“Across the region, we are increasingly shifting the conversation from ‘early warning’ to ‘early warning linked to anticipatory action,’ recognising that climate information must ultimately support action and preparedness to make a difference,” said IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Abdi Ware.
Ethiopia’s Meteorological Institute Director General Fetene Teshome echoed the call, stressing the need for continued investment in localised climate intelligence.
“We must continue to invest in and expand systems capable of generating knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information at both the national and regional levels,” Teshome said.
ICPAC said it will continue issuing regional updates throughout the season, while Kenya’s Meteorological Department is expected to release more detailed country-specific advisories as conditions develop. The WMO is also expected to publish an updated El Niño outlook in early June.
