Kenya is set to experience a diverse weather pattern this December, with the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) forecasting moderate to heavy rainfall in several regions over the next five days, while other areas anticipate continued dry and sunny conditions. This marks a muted end to the October-November-December (OND) short rains season, which has largely underperformed across much of the country.
The KMD’s latest advisory, issued on December 5th, highlights significant temperature variations across the nation. Regions expected to receive precipitation between December 6th and December 9th include the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, Northeastern, and Southeastern lowlands. Specific counties such as Nairobi, Siaya, Kisumu, Kitui, and Makueni are among those projected to receive rainfall.
Conversely, large sections of the country, particularly the northern and coastal regions, are expected to record generally suppressed rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures. Nairobi, the central highlands, and much of eastern Kenya are anticipated to receive only light rains, if any. The KMD attributes these prevailing conditions to regional and global climate drivers.
Temperatures will also vary significantly. “Very cold nights with temperatures dropping to 05°C are expected in counties such as Nairobi, Nyandarua, and Meru,” according to the KMD. In clear contrast, daytime temperatures could soar to 37°C in North-western Kenya and 33°C in coastal areas. This seasonal dryness is particularly prominent in the Mount Kenya region, the South Rift Valley, and eastern Kenya.
Looking ahead, the KMD warns that the December 2025 to February 2026 period will be characterized by generally sunny and dry conditions, especially in January and February, raising concerns about water shortages and heat stress.
Despite the overall dry forecast, isolated incidents of heavy rainfall may still occur, particularly in western Kenya and parts of the southeastern lowlands, driven by localized weather systems.
