Kenya is bracing for a very strong El Niño event this year, with the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) warning that above-normal rainfall is likely to hit most parts of the country from October, extending into early 2027.
Releasing the department’s preliminary weather outlook, Head of Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani said there is an 81 per cent probability that the 2026 El Niño will be very strong, and a 97 per cent chance that its effects will persist into the first months of next year.
According to Kimani, the country will transition from the current below-normal rainfall to markedly wetter conditions during the October-November-December short rains season. However, she cautioned that the strength of El Niño alone does not dictate how much rain Kenya will actually receive.
The amount and distribution of rainfall, she explained, will largely be shaped by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate pattern driven by temperature differences across the Indian Ocean, which can either amplify or dampen El Niño’s effects over East Africa.
KMD projects below-average rainfall over western Kenya through August and September, before conditions shift markedly from October, when most of the country is expected to receive above-average rainfall running into November.
The department reiterated that El Niño itself is not rainfall, but a naturally recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that develops every two to seven years and shapes weather patterns worldwide. Kenya has suffered major flooding during past El Niño episodes, most notably in 1997-1998, and more recently in 2023-2024, when heavy rains and landslides killed hundreds of people and destroyed infrastructure.
The government has already begun preparing for the anticipated impact on food security. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki said depressed rainfall in the country’s cereal-growing regions this season is expected to reduce harvests in the coming weeks, compounding the challenge posed by the incoming rains.
“The government is seized of the food security implications of both the expected sub-optimal harvest and the predicted El Niño rains, to ensure citizens are cushioned from hunger,” Kindiki said, adding that he had convened Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries to coordinate preparedness measures.
Authorities have urged counties and disaster management agencies to clear blocked drainage systems, strengthen early warning systems, identify evacuation centres and pre-position emergency supplies ahead of the rains, warning that flooding could disrupt transport, damage infrastructure and raise the risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid.
