The Kenyan government will import one million 90-kilogram bags of maize to replenish the country’s strategic reserves after adverse weather disrupted the 2026 harvest, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has announced.
Kagwe told Members of Parliament that maize production is expected to fall by as much as 40 per cent this year, leaving the country facing a projected deficit of about 5.4 million 90-kilogram bags by the end of September. Depressed rainfall has hit maize-growing areas of the North Rift particularly hard, with crops withering in the field and farmers bracing for losses that could run into billions of shillings.
“The projected depressed yields risk widening the maize deficit in the country, requiring contingency imports or release of strategic reserves to stabilise the domestic demand situation,” Kagwe said.
Weather and fertiliser delays behind the shortfall
According to the CS, rains arrived earlier than expected before a prolonged dry spell struck during critical stages of crop development, disrupting establishment and flowering in key maize-growing regions. The situation was worsened by delays in distributing subsidised fertiliser, which limited farmers’ access to essential inputs during the planting season.
Kagwe warned the damage could extend into the next planting cycle, since farmers earning less from a poor harvest may struggle to afford seed and fertiliser for the season ahead. Compounding the pressure, experts are predicting an El Niño weather pattern in the coming months that could bring further crop damage through heavy rains and flooding.
Imports cover only a fraction of the gap
The planned one-million-bag import, which the government is considering sourcing through a government-to-government arrangement, will cover less than a fifth of the projected 5.4-million-bag shortfall, leaving room for further imports or the release of strategic reserves if domestic supply falls further.
Kenya’s annual maize consumption ranges between 50 million and 60 million bags, driven by per capita consumption of 103 kilograms, against domestic production capacity of only 34 million to 42 million bags. A 90-kilogram bag currently costs between Sh3,000 and Sh4,500, well below the record Sh6,000 peak recorded during the 2022 drought, though prices could climb if demand outpaces supply.
Consumers are already feeling the pinch, with a two-kilogram packet of maize flour retailing between Sh153 and Sh163 in June, according to figures Kagwe presented to Parliament.
