Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) are expected to continue facing severe drought conditions even after the anticipated March to April to May 2026 long rains, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has warned.
While the long rains may bring some relief, most ASAL regions are projected to receive average to below-average rainfall, insufficient to offset existing moisture deficits and alleviate the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
KMD Director Edward Muriuki emphasized the gravity of the situation, noting, “Even if ASAL areas receive average to above-average rainfall, it may not be enough to offset the deficit on the ground. These areas require far more than average rainfall to recover.”
In contrast, highland areas of the Rift Valley, including western, eastern, and northwestern counties, are forecast to experience average to above-average rainfall, while coastal regions are likely to see below-average precipitation.
The warning comes as millions of Kenyans in ASAL regions continue to face water scarcity, poor pasture regeneration, and declining crop yields.
The Kenya Red Cross Society reports alarming nutrition statistics, with 784,670 children aged 6-59 months and 134,122 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers acutely malnourished and in need of urgent treatment. Counties most affected include Turkana, Mandera, Samburu, Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, and parts of Baringo, where food insecurity remains critical.
Water scarcity compounds the humanitarian situation, with KMD reporting that 65 water sources have dried up nationwide. Counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River, and parts of Turkana face worsening conditions, underscoring the urgency of sustained relief measures.
The persistent drought has sparked deep concern among residents, with many questioning whether the seasonal rains will meaningfully improve conditions.
Pastoralists and farmers have so far expressed skepticism, citing past seasons when rainfall forecasts did not translate into substantial relief. “The ground is cracked, the grass is gone. Even if it rains a little, it just washes away. We need sustained, heavy rains, not just a few showers,” said a Turkana farmer.
Experts emphasize that long-term solutions are critical. Beyond relying on seasonal rains, investments in water harvesting, drought-resistant crops, and sustainable land management practices are needed to build resilience against climate change, particularly in Kenya’s most vulnerable regions.
