Kenyan households could face renewed pressure on food prices in the coming months, as poor rainfall in key agricultural regions threatens crop production and stirs fresh inflation concerns, the Central Bank of Kenya has warned.
According to CBK’s Agriculture Sector Survey for July 2026, which sampled 389 farmers, traders and retailers, 94 percent of respondents identified weather as the leading factor influencing food prices, while 93 percent pointed to transport costs. The survey painted a mixed picture: some staples are expected to get cheaper even as others climb.
Potatoes recorded the sharpest expected price increase, alongside traditional vegetables, peas, spinach and fresh unpacketed milk. By contrast, tomatoes, onions, carrots, maize grain and maize flour are all tipped to become more affordable in the coming month. “Overall, the July 2026 survey points to a modest increase in near-term inflation expectations, mainly reflecting emerging supply-side risks,” CBK stated in its report.
Maize, a dietary cornerstone for millions of Kenyans, is at the center of the bank’s concerns. The survey’s balance of opinion on expected maize output stood at just 2 percent, with CBK linking the weak outlook to depressed rainfall in the North Rift and Western Kenya, the country’s primary maize-growing belt. Production expectations for rice, millet, wheat, beans and onions were similarly subdued. Kenya has historically produced an average of 41.1 million 50-kilogram bags of maize annually between 2020 and 2024, making any shortfall consequential for both households and millers.
Confidence in the agriculture sector’s near-term performance has also slipped, with only 67.1 percent of respondents expecting improved output over the next three months, down sharply from 81.5 percent in May.
Beyond weather, respondents flagged wider economic pressures. Inflation expectations for the coming month rose to 56.9 percent in July from 47.9 percent in June, while three-month expectations climbed to 57.5 percent from 48.5 percent. Notably, 72 percent of respondents said they had felt the impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on retail prices, chiefly through higher global oil costs and supply-chain disruptions. Labour costs and input prices were cited by 71 percent and 62 percent of respondents respectively.
Farmers are calling for targeted interventions to cushion the sector, including irrigation pumps, generators, expanded agricultural subsidies, better feeder roads and lower fuel costs. Notably, 62 percent of sampled farmers said they had already benefited from subsidized fertiliser programmes, which many view as critical to sustaining output.
While the survey does not point to a uniform surge in food prices, it underscores a fragile balance: favourable harvests in some regions are offsetting shortfalls in others. The central question moving forward is whether poor rains in Kenya’s key food baskets will translate into tighter supplies and a costlier food basket for consumers before the year is out.
