Kenya’s fragile economic recovery faces a fresh threat as global climate scientists and financial institutions warn that a developing, unusually powerful El Niño could disrupt agricultural production across East Africa, driving up food prices and complicating the country’s inflation outlook.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting an 81 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño through the October-to-December period, a magnitude that could rank among the most powerful events recorded since 1950. The Kenya Meteorological Department has echoed similar odds domestically, forecasting above-average rainfall during the October-November-December season and putting the likelihood of the phenomenon persisting into early 2027 at 97 per cent.
The African Development Bank has quantified the potential damage, projecting that a severe El Niño could erase between USD 10 billion and USD 20 billion, roughly KES 1.3 trillion to KES 2.6 trillion, from African economies, with heavily affected nations risking GDP losses of up to two per cent. A separate analysis published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that a Super El Niño of similar intensity to the 1997-98 event could cost the global economy about $686 billion in direct losses, potentially compounding to $3.1 trillion over five years if governments and international institutions fail to act early.
Kenya sits among the East and Southern African economies identified as most exposed, given their reliance on rain-fed agriculture and the outsized share of household income spent on food. Unlike Southern Africa, which typically suffers drought under El Niño, East Africa tends to face the opposite extreme: torrential rainfall that floods farmland, washes away topsoil and damages the rural road networks needed to move produce to markets in Nairobi and Mombasa.
Gillian Edgeworth, a fixed income portfolio manager at Wellington Management, said many central banks had entered the year expecting room to cut interest rates, but persistent inflation risks were now forcing some to hold, or even raise, borrowing costs instead. Allspring Global Investments’ Gary Tan added that the weather pattern was likely to make inflation more stubborn, particularly in agriculture-dependent economies.
The Kenyan government has responded by setting up an Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño Preparedness and Response, chaired by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, tasked with activating the National El Niño Contingency Plan and coordinating government agencies ahead of the anticipated rains.
Agricultural economists are pressing the Ministry of Agriculture to move faster on flood-resistant seed distribution, strategic grain reserves and drainage repairs in known flood zones, warning that the window to blunt the shock is narrowing as the Pacific continues to warm.
