Kenyans are cautiously optimistic as global crude oil prices decline days before the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announces new pump prices on June 14 — but a revised pricing formula may blunt the full impact of the international market correction.
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), in its weekly bulletin published Friday, June 5, confirmed that international oil prices eased during the week ending June 4, 2026, with Murban crude oil falling to USD 87.38 per barrel from USD 88.48 a week earlier, amid renewed optimism over ongoing U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.
The Kenyan shilling remained stable at around Ksh129.52 against the US dollar, meaning there was no additional currency pressure on the cost of importing fuel. Since Kenya purchases petroleum products in US dollars, a stable shilling reduces the exposure that typically erodes any savings from falling crude prices before they reach the pump.
Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has offered a degree of hope to millions of fuel-weary Kenyans. Speaking this week, Wandayi hinted at a possible reduction in pump prices at the upcoming review, though he cautioned that Kenya remains vulnerable to external market dynamics as a net oil importer.
The June 14 announcement comes after a turbulent few months in Kenya’s fuel sector. EPRA earlier raised diesel prices by KSh46.29 per litre and petrol prices by KSh16.65 per litre in May, triggering nationwide outrage, transport strikes, and public protests. Following sustained pressure, EPRA revised diesel prices downward by KSh10.06 per litre effective May 19, though transport operators rejected the adjustment as insufficient, insisting diesel should be cut by KSh46 per litre.
Despite the favorable global market signals, experts warn that relief may be partial. EPRA recently adjusted its fuel pricing formula, a change that effectively delays the transmission of lower global fuel prices into domestic pump costs — meaning Kenyans may not fully benefit from the decline recorded in May.
People Daily analysis indicates that under the old formula, April’s average prices would have applied to cargoes arriving between May 1 and May 14, and May’s average would have applied to cargoes delivered between May 15 and May 31 — a mechanism that has now been altered ahead of the June–July cycle.
Inflationary pressures further underscore the urgency of the review. CBK reported that overall inflation climbed to 6.7 percent in May 2026 from 5.6 percent in April, largely driven by higher energy and transportation costs tied to elevated global oil prices.
With the new prices set to take effect from June 15 to July 14, all eyes remain on EPRA’s June 14 announcement — a decision that will determine whether the global oil price relief finally reaches the wallets of ordinary Kenyans, or is absorbed by taxes, levies, and formula changes before it arrives at the pump.
