The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a fresh warning of intensified rainfall across the country in April, cautioning that the ongoing long rains could trigger widespread flooding, infrastructure damage, and renewed humanitarian risks.
In its latest monthly outlook released on April 2, the weatherman indicated that while rainfall may remain relatively subdued in the first half of the month, a significant surge is expected toward the end of April, accompanied by afternoon and evening storms in several regions.
“Rainfall is expected to be slightly depressed in the first half of the month but enhanced towards the end, with occasional afternoon and evening storms likely across the country,” the department stated.
The forecast follows a notably wet March that marked the onset of the March-April-May long rains season, during which some areas recorded extreme downpours exceeding 100mm within 24 hours. In Nairobi, rainfall peaked at 160mm on March 6, triggering severe flooding that caused widespread destruction and fatalities, with the national death toll rising to over 100.
According to the agency, the evolving weather patterns are largely driven by the northward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which brings moist air masses from both the Indian Ocean and the Congo Basin, fueling rainfall across Kenya’s highlands.
Regionally, the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and much of the Rift Valley are expected to receive near-average rainfall. However, parts of northeastern Kenya including: Marsabit, Wajir, and Mandera, are likely to record above-average precipitation, raising the risk of flash floods in typically arid zones.
Conversely, the southeastern lowlands and coastal regions are projected to experience near- to below-average rainfall, a pattern that may exacerbate water stress in already dry areas.
Despite these variations, the Kenya Met has warned that the cumulative impact of sustained rainfall could be severe, particularly in flood-prone regions.
“The continued April rains may cause renewed flooding in some areas. Water agencies should maintain round-the-clock monitoring of river levels and clear clogged drainage and riparian obstructions,” the department cautioned.
Authorities have also raised concerns over the potential disruption to transport and infrastructure, with flooded roads, damaged culverts, and poor visibility expected to affect mobility across key corridors.
Road agencies have been advised to pre-position maintenance teams and reinforce drainage systems, while county governments have been urged to grade rural roads ahead of the heavy downpours.
Farmers, particularly in high-potential agricultural zones, have been encouraged to strengthen field drainage systems to prevent waterlogging, which could lead to crop losses. In contrast, communities in arid and semi-arid regions have been advised to prioritize water harvesting and efficient moisture management to cope with uneven rainfall distribution.
Temperature projections indicate that most parts of the country will experience warm and wet conditions, with daytime temperatures ranging between 20°C and 32°C. Warmer-than-average conditions are expected in coastal and northeastern regions, while highland areas will remain relatively cooler.
The advisory comes amid growing concerns over climate variability and its impact on livelihoods, agriculture, and public health, including increased risks of waterborne and vector-borne diseases.
As the rains intensify, Kenyans are being urged to remain alert, heed official advisories, and take precautionary measures to mitigate the effects of flooding and extreme weather conditions.
