Kenyan motorists could be staring at another tough month at the pump after global oil prices surged by 5 per cent ahead of the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s (EPRA) scheduled monthly review, driven by renewed tension between the United States and Iran.
Brent crude, the primary benchmark Kenya uses to price its petroleum and crude oil imports, jumped more than 3 per cent this week, climbing back above Ksh9,823 (USD76) a barrel — its highest level since June 23. The spike followed U.S. military strikes on Iran, launched after Washington accused Tehran of orchestrating attacks on three commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical waterway that accounts for nearly 21 per cent of global oil supply.
U.S. Central Command confirmed it had begun a series of strikes intended to punish Iran for targeting civilian shipping crews in the busy corridor. Iran has not officially claimed responsibility for the vessel attacks, though it has repeatedly warned ships against sailing routes it has not cleared. In response, the U.S. cancelled a temporary waiver that had allowed limited Iranian oil sales, a move Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Vahid Jalalzadeh, described as a clear breach of last month’s agreement.
Energy experts warn that crude supply through Hormuz could remain disrupted for months amid periodic flare-ups and ceasefire violations from both sides, a development already rattling global markets, with Asian stocks in Japan, China, and Taiwan trading unevenly as investors brace for prolonged instability in the region.
The timing could hardly be worse for Kenyan households, with EPRA set to review pump prices on July 14. Kenya’s heavy reliance on imported crude means sustained global price increases often translate directly into higher costs at the pump. However, EPRA officials say any relief from recent price movements takes time to reach consumers. Speaking earlier this month, EPRA’s Petroleum and Gas Director, Edward Kinyua, explained that fuel currently in the Kenyan market was imported weeks earlier, when prices were shaped by different market conditions, and that the full supply chain, from refining to shipping to delivery, takes between 30 and 45 days before changes are felt at the pump.
To cushion Kenyans from global fuel shocks, President William Ruto’s administration has previously directed EPRA to cut diesel prices by Ksh10 per litre, pushing Nairobi pump prices down to roughly Ksh222.86. The government has also spent over Ksh28.2 billion between April and May subsidising fuel, while slashing VAT on petroleum products from 16 per cent to 8 per cent. Ruto’s administration credits its Government-to-Government fuel framework with guaranteeing stable supplies despite Middle East-driven shortages, while easing pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves amid ongoing global volatility.
