Kenya is staring at a potential fuel crisis as independent retailers warn of looming shortages, urging the government to urgently allow private fuel imports to stabilize supply.
The appeal, led by the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya (POAK), comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have disrupted global oil shipments and exposed Kenya’s heavy reliance on imported petroleum products.
According to POAK chairman Martin Chomba, the situation is already deteriorating, with approximately 20 per cent of fuel stations across the country experiencing shortages.
“Supply is already constrained, with about 20 per cent of the roughly 3,100 retailers affected. If tensions in the Middle East persist, most outlets could run out of fuel within two weeks, escalating into a full-blown crisis,” Chomba warned.
The supply disruptions have been linked to ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has significantly affected oil flows through the strategic Strait of Hormuz – a critical passage that handles a substantial share of the world’s crude oil shipments.
Kenya, which relies almost entirely on fuel imports through government-to-government agreements with Gulf producers, now finds itself vulnerable to external shocks. Retailers argue that this dependency has left the country exposed, especially during periods of geopolitical instability.
In response, fuel dealers are pushing for policy reforms, including the liberalisation of fuel importation to allow private sector players to source petroleum independently as a contingency measure.
At the same time, concerns are mounting over possible fuel hoarding. Chomba cautioned that some dealers may begin stockpiling fuel in anticipation of price hikes, a move that could worsen shortages and trigger panic buying among motorists.
“Real shock is on the way,” he added, pointing to speculation-driven demand spikes already being observed in the market.
The situation has been further complicated by the decision of the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) to maintain current pump prices despite rising global oil costs. Retailers argue that the price freeze is unsustainable given increasing import expenses, making it difficult to maintain steady supply.
However, EPRA Director General Daniel Kiptoo Bargoria has sought to calm public fears, insisting that the country still has sufficient fuel reserves.
Separately, the Ministry of Energy has also reassured Kenyans that existing stocks are adequate in the short term, attributing the current shortages to hoarding and panic buying rather than a structural supply failure.
“We have sufficient stock in the country,” a government statement indicated, noting that over 100 million litres of super petrol had recently been released into the system to ease pressure.
Nonetheless, policymakers, including Belgut MP Nelson Koech, have raised concerns about unusual demand patterns driven by speculation within the supply chain.
