A serious diplomatic and military standoff is emerging between Uganda and the United States after Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, warned that Kampala could withdraw its troops from Somalia unless Washington urgently provides Ksh129 billion (USD 1 billion) annually to support the mission.
Speaking on February 4, General Muhoozi said failure to secure the funding could force Uganda to pull its forces out of Somalia before the end of the year, a move analysts warn would significantly destabilize regional security and weaken the fight against the Al-Shabaab militant group.
“Our mission in Somalia has effectively reached a crossroads,” Muhoozi said. “Without an annual commitment of USD 1 billion to sustain our operations, we will have no choice but to bring our sons and daughters home before this year concludes.”
Uganda is the largest troop contributor to the African Union’s mission in Somalia, currently known as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Its forces have for years formed the backbone of efforts to secure key installations, protect Somalia’s federal institutions, and combat Al-Shabaab insurgents.
Security experts caution that a sudden Ugandan withdrawal would create a dangerous vacuum. Analysts say such a move could allow Al-Shabaab to regroup, reclaim territory, and threaten hard-won gains in Mogadishu and beyond, with ripple effects across the Horn of Africa.
The funding demand underscores the heavy financial and human burden Uganda says it has carried in sustaining the mission. While the exact level of current U.S. support to ATMIS is not publicly detailed, the scale of the request signals Kampala’s frustration with what it views as inadequate and uncertain international backing.
The ultimatum also comes amid strained relations between Kampala and Washington. The United States has previously criticised Uganda over human rights concerns, particularly following disputed elections, leading to diplomatic friction. Analysts say Muhoozi’s remarks reflect a more transactional approach, using Uganda’s central role in Somalia as leverage in broader negotiations with the U.S.
“This is a test of priorities,” one regional security analyst noted. “Uganda is signalling that regional stability comes at a cost, and that cost must be shared more equitably.”
Public reaction has been mixed. Some observers sympathize with Uganda’s financial strain, arguing that long-running peacekeeping missions are unsustainable without predictable funding. Others warn that pulling out troops while Al-Shabaab remains active could have disastrous consequences for Somalia and the wider region.
The United States has not issued an official response to Muhoozi’s statement, but diplomats and regional governments are closely monitoring developments. With the threat of withdrawal hanging over the mission, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution can be reached or whether Somalia faces its most significant security shift in nearly two decades.
