(KDRTV) – It is 2020, slightly more than two years to the next general elections and it looks like there is no one to challenge William Ruto.
The Deputy President ignited his campaign vehicle immediately after the 2017 elections. If State House was a Marathon, then Ruto is the Great Eliud Kipchoge.
It is almost impossible for anyone to catch the Sugoi hustler. In fact no one else has declared an interest in the presidency.
Raila Odinga and his minions are more interested in stopping the DP than getting to State House themselves.
They say a day is a very long time in politics. Now imagine two years! All am saying is that things can change for the DP before 2022.
Him being a frontrunner at the moment does not guarantee that he will win the race.
No one understands this more than Ruto himself, having been a member of the ODM side that lost the 2007 elections at the 11th hour.
President Uhuru Kenyatta was parachuted to State House by two communities; the Kikuyu and Kalenjins.
Mutahi Ngunyi called this tyranny of numbers.
But can Ruto depend on the same matrix for 2022?
A faction of Jubilee called Kieleweke, is already opposed to the DP’s Presidential bid.
This faction will grow bigger in the run up to the next elections especially if Ruto fails to pick a running mate from Mt Kenya.
Ruto’s running mate could be the person that will determine his fate in 2022.
Currently, majority of Mt Kenya politicians support the hustler’s 2022 bid. The support is based on the belief that one of them will be Deputy President after the elections.
But appointing a running mate from Mt Kenya does not favour Ruto. There is a notion that majority of Kenyans have been left out executive posts. There has been no President outside the Kikuyu and Kalenjin tribes since independence. Ruto must choose between appeasing the Mt Kenya region by picking one of them as running mate and disappointing the rest of the country.
It will be so easy for his opponents to rally the other tribes against him.
If he has to choose a running mate outside Mt Kenya, then he still has very little options.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka would have been the obvious option but he recently said he cannot work with Ruto because that will be undermining the President. Like the watermelon, he can’t even tell what he wants.
Kalonzo cannot guarantee 100% of the Kamba vote like he has done in the past three elections. Alfred Mutua has taken a substantial junk of the kingdom from him.
The DP could also look at Western Kenya, the land with more leaders than people. Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula are planning to work together.
But Raila and COTU boss Francis Atwoli still have a substantial influence in the Luhya nation and they are Ruto’s number 1 enemies.
Who will be Ruto’s running mate?