Kenyan political analysts have predicted who will win the August presidential election if 2013 and 2017 are any indication.
According to the analysts, if the voting patterns of 2013 and 2017 are repeated, Raila Odinga’s perceived strongholds in 18 counties command 8,450,380 votes, while DP Ruto’s perceived bastions in 16 counties collectively have 8,040,885 votes.
In 2013, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, crossed the 50 percent line with 6.1 million votes while Raila Odinga got 5.3 million.
In the contested and ultimately nullified election of 2017, Uhuru Kenyatta received 54.17 percent of the vote against Raila Odinga’s 44.94 percent, with the rest receiving less than one percent of the vote.
With less than 3 months remaining before the August 9 General Election, the DP has Mount Kenya and the Rift Valley on his side, while Raila Odinga has his traditional bases in Nyanza, Western, and the Coast regions.
The Ruto camp claims that they have made significant advances into Western and Coast regions and predict having a stronger chance in the upcoming elections than they had in the previous two elections.
The DP also has the support of Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula who previously supported Raila Odinga. Although Mudavadi ran for president in 2013, the region primarily supported Raila Odinga. DP Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance has since promised the region the position of the chief minister, as well as Cabinet positions and projects, in order to sway the situation in his favor.
According to governance expert Javas Bigambo, DP William Ruto’s strategists must devise a new formula for winning the August 9 General Elections. With the new development, he believes ODM leader Raila Odinga has an advantage over DP Ruto.
“The decision consolidates Raila’s vote basket, which, especially in Ukambani, would have ordinarily been scattered if Kalonzo went separately or joined Ruto,” He says.
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